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President
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Co-Chair
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09:00 – 10:00
A Global Reference Point: Where Are We Now and Where Are We Heading?
The present multicrisis, in many respects, stems from the gradual erosion of the international order established in the early 1990s.
Some interpret current developments as an indicator of the decline of the Western world and the shift of global power centers toward the East.
This multicrisis puts us on the threshold of uncertainty and ushers in an era of “black swans”. As we face these times of uncertainty, adaptability will apparently remain a key driver not only to success, but also to survival.
- At what historical juncture are we now?
- New World Order: what system of international relations are we heading towards?
- Megacycle of turmoil: what will the world look like when it ends?
- Future concerns: what should we prepare for?
Vladimir POZNER
Moderator
Russian journalist and publicist, anchor of the “Pozner” program on Channel One (2008-2022)
Yves LETERME
Key Speaker
Co-Chair of the European Division at the Global Coalition for Efficient Logistics (GCEL), Deputy Secretary General at OECD (2011-2014), Prime Minister of Belgium (2008, 2009-2011)James M. LINDSAY
Key Speaker
Senior Vice President, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
10:00-11:00
World On the Edge of the Abyss: How Do We Break the Deadlock in Ukraine?
Military actions are reaching new levels of escalation. Primarily, the threat of a technological disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is critically growing – with its aftermath potentially being ten times as great as that of the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, Russia does not rule out using a nuclear argument in the case of “a threat to its statehood”.
The existing entanglement is further exacerbated by a lack of a strategic vision for the region’s post-crisis security architecture as a whole.
- A chance for a strategic compromise between Russia and the West: what should it look like?
- How to avoid an escalation into a nuclear war?
- How will the crisis in Ukraine affect the balance of power within the Washington – Moscow – Beijing “strategic triangle”?
- What geopolitical lessons should Kazakhstan learn from this crisis?
Nik GOWING
Moderator
Founder and Director of Thinking the Unthinkable, BBC World News presenter (1996-2014), Visiting Professor at Kings College London
Nigel GOULD-DAVIES
Expert
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Vladislav INOZEMTSEV
Expert
Special Advisor at the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), Director, Center for Post-Industrial Studies (1996-2019)
Edward N. LUTTWAK
Expert
Senior Associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
ZHAO Long
Expert
Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Global Governance Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
11:15-12:05
These multifaceted shocks “reset” the global growth dynamics. The IMF estimates that global economic growth will slow down to 2.9% in 2023. This is significantly lower than the historically average annual growth rate of 3.8% since the early 2000s.
At the same time, such serious structural challenges as the global debt crisis which could well lead to a general collapse remain unresolved. Global debt has already reached an all-time high of $305 trillion, or 348% of global GDP, according to the Institute of International Finance.
Such highly unstable state of the global economy leaves it critically vulnerable to future shocks.
- What is the current state of the world economy? What are the key challenges we face?
- How dangerous is the global debt bubble? When might it reach a tipping point?
- How stable is global financial system? Is a new global banking collapse looming?
- What is the future for global commodity markets?
Marc UZAN
Moderator
Executive Director and Founder, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (RBWC)
Johannes F. LINN
Expert
Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Center for Sustainable Development, Brookings Institution, Vice President of the World Bank (1991-2003)
Krishna B. KUMAR
Expert
Executive Vice President of Research, National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago
12:05-13:00
These sanctions were not supported by more than 100 countries, which account for 40% of the world GDP. The "Global South", with its rising influence is extremely reluctant to find itself in an "either/or" situation. India, with its record increase in imports of Russian energy resources is a vivid example of a large economy pursuing an independent policy.
The world today is much more complex than the Washington-Moscow-Beijing triangle. It is no longer enough for major players to use only "sticks" to achieve their goals. The result of such a policy will be exactly the opposite - neutral countries will be forced to look for less "toxic" partners.
Besides that, a new financial system is being shaped. Beijing is testing its brand new “DigiYuan”, trying to turn it into the world's largest cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC). This could completely reshape global financial flows.
It is obvious that existing geopolitical realities and new financial technologies require a complete rethinking of current policies and approaches.
- Sanctions: what is the real profit and loss balance sheet?
- Faith in the dollar: what are the consequences of the sanctions for the existing global financial system?
- China's alternative: is the West's sanctions policy pushing the Global South toward Beijing?
- "Not just sticks but also carrots": how to take into account the interests of neutral powers?
Yerzhan SALTYBAYEV
Moderator
Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP)
Yves LETERME
Expert
Co-Chair of the European Division at the Global Coalition for Efficient Logistics (GCEL), Deputy Secretary General at OECD (201 1-2014), Prime Minister of Belgium (2008, 2009-201 1)
Suma CHAKRABARTI
Expert
Chair of Board of Trustees, ODI, President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2012-2020)
Vladislav INOZEMTSEV
Expert
Special Advisor at the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), Director, Center for Post-Industrial Studies (1996-2019)
Nandan UNNIKRISHNAN
Expert
Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation
14:30-15:20
Meanwhile, Kabul's Central Asian neighbors are actively engaged in development of ambitious logistics projects through the territory of Afghanistan. These projects aim to provide access to the seaports and dynamically growing economies of South Asia.
Resource-rich Central Asia and the huge market of South Asia have every chance for synergistic relationship, with Afghanistan serving as a pivotal nexus.
Thus, against the background of large-scale changes in geopolitics and geo-economics, Afghanistan has a real chance to become an organic part of a new regional integration process.
- Trans-Afghan corridor: what are the real prospects?
- The Belt and Road Initiative: China's influence on the new regional configuration.
- Synergy: where are the key points of intersection of interests for Central and South Asia?
Damjan KRNJEVIĆ-MIŠKOVIĆ
Moderator
Director for Policy Research and Analysis, Institute for Development and Diplomacy, Professor of Practice, ADA University
Hamid KARZAI
Key Speaker
President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2004-2014)
Johannes F. LINN
Expert
Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Center for Sustainable Development, Brookings Institution, Vice President of the World Bank (1991-2003)
Ashok SAJJANHAR
Expert
President, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow at Ananta Aspen Centre, Former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan
ZHAO Huasheng
Expert
Professor of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan University, Senior Fellow, Beijing Club for International Dialogue
15:20-16:20
In its turn, the risk of a direct clash between Israel and Iran heightens the probability of US involvement in the conflict. The consequences of this scenario may be catastrophic.
The situation is balancing on the brink of an abyss raising serious concerns about the future of the region and the world at large.
- What is the prospect of war breaking out between Iran and Israel?
- Not only Washington: how Beijing and Moscow can influence the dynamics of the conflict in the Middle East?
- A new formula for peace in the Middle East: where is the starting point? Are the Abraham Accords 2.0 possible?
Bruno MAÇÃES
Moderator
Senior Adviser at Flint Global, Secretary of State for European Affairs of Portugal (2013-2015), author of the bestseller “The Dawn of Eurasia”
Tedros GHEBREYESUS
Video-address
Director-General of the World Health Organization
Hamid KARZAI
Expert
President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2004-2014)
José Luis ZAPATERO
Expert
Prime Minister of Spain (2004-2011)
Danilo TÜRK
Expert
President of the Club de Madrid, President of Slovenia (2007-2012)
Vuk JEREMIĆ
Expert
President of the People's Party, President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), President of the UN General Assembly (2012-2013), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia (2007-2012)
09:00 – 09:50
A pivotal factor in this decline is the emergence of new centers of power, with China, foremost among them, actively seeking to revise the global distribution of influence and resources.
Beijing is becoming the leader of the "Global South", promoting the BRICS and the SCO. In contrast, the US is actively forming new coalitions such as QUAD and AUKUS, and strengthening ties with key players in the Asia-Pacific region.
In addition to these two global giants, other powers – Russia, India, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia – also claim their own regional spheres of influence. Each of these players has its own vision for fair reconfiguration of the world, which gives rise to severe risks of new hot conflicts and “blockalization”.
- Historical Deja vu: is the world on the brink of a new World War?
- G-2 World: Is a US-China bipolar system possible?
- What does the new multipolarity mean for the countries of Eurasia?
- Economics of Blockalization: will the yuan displace the dollar in Eurasia?
Pepe ESCOBAR
Moderator
Journalist, Columnist at The Cradle, Editor-at-large at Asia Times
James M. LINDSAY
Expert
Senior Vice President, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Yves LETERME
Expert
Co-Chair of the European Division at the Global Coalition for Efficient Logistics (GCEL), Deputy Secretary General at OECD (201 1-2014), Prime Minister of Belgium (2008, 2009-201 1)
ZHOU Bo
Expert
Senior Fellow of Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University
09:50 – 10:45
However, the tension between the US and China around the island is only one element of a complex strategic rivalry between these superpowers. Their bilateral relations have accumulated a substantial number of disagreements across all key domains.
The Thucydides Trap, inevitably, begins to manifest itself, rekindling a new iteration of Cold War dynamics within international politics.
- Is a major war between superpowers possible? Or is it still a managed conflict?
- Technological clash between the US and China: how will it affect the rest of the world?
- What are the limits of the Russia-China alliance?
- Global supply chains: what role can Central Asia and Kazakhstan play in a new potential framework?
Ariel COHEN
Moderator
Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Managing Director, Energy, Growth and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center (ITIC)Michael PILLSBURY
Key Speaker
Senior Fellow for China Strategy at The Heritage Foundation, consultant to the US Presidents, author of the bestseller “The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower”
Peter FRANKOPAN
Expert
Professor of Global History, University of Oxford, UNESCO Professor of Silk Roads Studies, King’s College, Cambridge, author of the bestseller “The Silk Roads: A New History of the World” (2015)
Evan A. FEIGENBAUM
Expert
Vice President for studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State (2006-2009)YANG Cheng
Expert
Executive Dean of Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies (SAGGAS), Professor of Shanghai International Studies University